Uncertainty in importance measures: Developing the epistemic Risk Achievement Worth

E. Borgonovo; C. L. Smith; Mitra Fouladirad; Christophe Bérenguer

Uncertainty in importance measures: Developing the epistemic Risk Achievement Worth

E. Borgonovo
, C. L. Smith
, Mitra Fouladirad
, Christophe Bérenguer

Nuclear Safety & Regulatory Research

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Risk or Reliability Achievement Worth (RAW) is one of the most widely employed importance measures. RAW is defined as the ratio of the reliability (or risk metric) value attained when a component is failed over the base case value of the reliability. Both the numerator and denominator are typically point estimates. In this work, we extend RAW to the case in which epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration (epistemic RAW; ERAW). ERAW considers the effect of the component being down not only on the reliability point estimate but on its entire epistemic distribution. We discuss the properties of the new measure for series and parallel systems. In particular, for series systems, we show that aleatory uncertainty makes the value of ERAW independent of epistemic uncertainty.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011
Pages	2256-2260
Number of pages	5
State	Published - 2012
Event	European Safety and Reliability Conference: Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management, ESREL 2011 - Troyes, France Duration: Sep 18 2011 → Sep 22 2011

Publication series

Name	Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011

Conference

Conference	European Safety and Reliability Conference: Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management, ESREL 2011
Country/Territory	France
City	Troyes
Period	09/18/11 → 09/22/11

Cite this

Borgonovo, E., Smith, C. L., Fouladirad, M., & Bérenguer, C. (2012). Uncertainty in importance measures: Developing the epistemic Risk Achievement Worth. In Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011 (pp. 2256-2260). (Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011).

Borgonovo, E. ; Smith, C. L. ; Fouladirad, Mitra et al. / Uncertainty in importance measures : Developing the epistemic Risk Achievement Worth. Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011. 2012. pp. 2256-2260 (Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011).

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title = "Uncertainty in importance measures: Developing the epistemic Risk Achievement Worth",

abstract = "Risk or Reliability Achievement Worth (RAW) is one of the most widely employed importance measures. RAW is defined as the ratio of the reliability (or risk metric) value attained when a component is failed over the base case value of the reliability. Both the numerator and denominator are typically point estimates. In this work, we extend RAW to the case in which epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration (epistemic RAW; ERAW). ERAW considers the effect of the component being down not only on the reliability point estimate but on its entire epistemic distribution. We discuss the properties of the new measure for series and parallel systems. In particular, for series systems, we show that aleatory uncertainty makes the value of ERAW independent of epistemic uncertainty.",

author = "E. Borgonovo and Smith, \{C. L.\} and Mitra Fouladirad and Christophe B{\'e}renguer",

year = "2012",

language = "English",

isbn = "9780415683791",

series = "Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011",

pages = "2256--2260",

booktitle = "Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011",

note = "European Safety and Reliability Conference: Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management, ESREL 2011 ; Conference date: 18-09-2011 Through 22-09-2011",

}

Borgonovo, E, Smith, CL, Fouladirad, M & Bérenguer, C 2012, Uncertainty in importance measures: Developing the epistemic Risk Achievement Worth. in Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011. Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011, pp. 2256-2260, European Safety and Reliability Conference: Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management, ESREL 2011, Troyes, France, 09/18/11.

Uncertainty in importance measures: Developing the epistemic Risk Achievement Worth. / Borgonovo, E.; Smith, C. L.; Fouladirad, Mitra et al.
Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011. 2012. p. 2256-2260 (Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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T1 - Uncertainty in importance measures

T2 - European Safety and Reliability Conference: Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management, ESREL 2011

AU - Borgonovo, E.

AU - Smith, C. L.

AU - Fouladirad, Mitra

AU - Bérenguer, Christophe

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Risk or Reliability Achievement Worth (RAW) is one of the most widely employed importance measures. RAW is defined as the ratio of the reliability (or risk metric) value attained when a component is failed over the base case value of the reliability. Both the numerator and denominator are typically point estimates. In this work, we extend RAW to the case in which epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration (epistemic RAW; ERAW). ERAW considers the effect of the component being down not only on the reliability point estimate but on its entire epistemic distribution. We discuss the properties of the new measure for series and parallel systems. In particular, for series systems, we show that aleatory uncertainty makes the value of ERAW independent of epistemic uncertainty.

AB - Risk or Reliability Achievement Worth (RAW) is one of the most widely employed importance measures. RAW is defined as the ratio of the reliability (or risk metric) value attained when a component is failed over the base case value of the reliability. Both the numerator and denominator are typically point estimates. In this work, we extend RAW to the case in which epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration (epistemic RAW; ERAW). ERAW considers the effect of the component being down not only on the reliability point estimate but on its entire epistemic distribution. We discuss the properties of the new measure for series and parallel systems. In particular, for series systems, we show that aleatory uncertainty makes the value of ERAW independent of epistemic uncertainty.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84863038869

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:84863038869

SN - 9780415683791

T3 - Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011

SP - 2256

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BT - Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011

Y2 - 18 September 2011 through 22 September 2011

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Borgonovo E, Smith CL, Fouladirad M, Bérenguer C. Uncertainty in importance measures: Developing the epistemic Risk Achievement Worth. In Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011. 2012. p. 2256-2260. (Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011).

Uncertainty in importance measures: Developing the epistemic Risk Achievement Worth

Abstract

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