TY - GEN
T1 - Risk-informed decision making for high-consequence outcomes
AU - Smith, Curtis
AU - Vedros, Kurt
PY - 2010
Y1 - 2010
N2 - The issues faced during the operation of high-consequence facilities or systems require a blended quantitative and qualitative risk-informed approach to decision-making. For example, in the case of the operation of nuclear power plants or manned space missions, a risk-informed metric one might consider is the probability of loss of the plant or failure of the mission, where this probability is balanced by the consequences of the event. However, as we will discuss, one should focus on the observable event itself (e.g., the actual loss or failure) rather than the probability of the event. We will describe the general approach of making probabilistic decisions, including the focus on predictive distributions for outcomes such as a complex system failure.
AB - The issues faced during the operation of high-consequence facilities or systems require a blended quantitative and qualitative risk-informed approach to decision-making. For example, in the case of the operation of nuclear power plants or manned space missions, a risk-informed metric one might consider is the probability of loss of the plant or failure of the mission, where this probability is balanced by the consequences of the event. However, as we will discuss, one should focus on the observable event itself (e.g., the actual loss or failure) rather than the probability of the event. We will describe the general approach of making probabilistic decisions, including the focus on predictive distributions for outcomes such as a complex system failure.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84881470463
U2 - 10.1115/IMECE2010-37187
DO - 10.1115/IMECE2010-37187
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84881470463
SN - 9780791844489
T3 - ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Proceedings (IMECE)
SP - 273
EP - 278
BT - New Developments in Simulation Methods and Software for Engineering Applications; Safety Engineering, Risk Analysis and Reliability Methods; Transportation Systems
PB - American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
T2 - ASME 2010 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, IMECE 2010
Y2 - 12 November 2010 through 18 November 2010
ER -