Risk Analysis of Reactor Pressure Vessels Considering Modeling-Induced Uncertainties

Uncertainties in simulation models arise not only from the parameters that are used within the model, but also due to the modeling process itself—specifically the identification of a model that most accurately predicts the true physical response of interest. In risk-analysis studies, it is critical to consider the effect that all forms of uncertainty have on the overall level of uncertainty. This work develops an approach to quantify the effect of both parametric and model-form uncertainties. The developed approach is demonstrated on the assessment of the fatigue-based risk associated with a reactor pressure vessel subjected to a thermal shock event.