RESEARCH ROADMAP TO ENHANCE INDUSTRY LEGACY PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS AND TOOLS

For nuclear power generation, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has become an integral part of plant operation and management. Since the introduction of nuclear technology, application of PRA models has provided substantial benefit in terms of improved plant understanding, safety, and economics. However, while these models have demonstrated their utility and value across a broad range of applications, they are being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that never were envisioned by the original PRA practitioners. These increased demands on PRA model capabilities have led to increasing levels of model complexity resulting in a need for increases in both computational power and time. Additionally, as the complexity of PRA models has increased, the capability of non-PRA experts to understand the models, their insights, and use of the information generated has become problematic. This is particularly true when the objective is to provide relevant information to plant management to support real time decision-making. Although PRA methods and tools have served the nuclear power industry exceedingly well, the underlying science is dated and has not changed significantly for over two decades. More modern tools and technologies have been developing rapidly which may potentially be used to address the challenges and limitations that exist with the legacy approaches to PRA. This paper outlines the key challenges identified by PRA practitioners and describes research and development priorities that were obtained from industry analysts that will be necessary to overcome the identified limitations. It describes a roadmap that was developed because of these assessments. This roadmap is intended for use to assist in planning for resource investments that will be necessary to support risk technology modernization, expansion, and sustainability.