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Identification and Prioritization of Sources of Uncertainty in External Hazard Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Project Update

  • Michelle Bensi
  • , Zeyun Wu
  • , Katrina Groth
  • , Zhegang Ma
  • , Ray Schneider
  • , Tao Liu
  • , Kaveh Faraji Najarkolaie
  • , Ahmad Al-Douri
  • , Camille Levine

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

The value and importance of external hazard probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for nuclear facilities have been increasingly recognized over the past decade. However, the state of knowledge/practice in external hazard PRA has not kept pace with this evolution, particularly for temporally and spatial dynamic hazards such as floods. As a result, research is needed to build upon the existing state of knowledge to develop a technically sound, risk-informed strategy for identifying, characterizing, and prioritizing drivers of hazard uncertainty in external hazard PRA. This presentation summarizes the ongoing progress of a multi-year research project seeking to develop a structured process for identifying, evaluating, categorizing, and communicating the impact of uncertainties on XHPRAs. The project explores uncertainties from the perspective of hazard characterization, the physical response of the plant, and human performance. This paper (and associated presentation) provides an update on project activities and seeks feedback from the PRA community that may benefit from project insights.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of 18th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2023
PublisherAmerican Nuclear Society
Pages740-745
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9780894487927
ISBN (Print)9780894487927
DOIs
StatePublished - 2023
Event18th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2023 - Knoxville, United States
Duration: Jul 15 2023Jul 20 2023

Publication series

NameProceedings of 18th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2023

Conference

Conference18th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2023
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityKnoxville
Period07/15/2307/20/23

Keywords

  • External hazards
  • PRA
  • uncertainty

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