A survey of expert elicitation practices for probabilistic risk assessment

Ronald Laurids Boring

doi:10.1177/1541931215591314

A survey of expert elicitation practices for probabilistic risk assessment

Ronald Laurids Boring

Nuclear Science & Technology

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Risk and reliability analyses of human errors or hardware failures sometimes need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate human performance or hardware operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. Formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, but the methods are often time-consuming and costly to implement. This paper reports the first phase of a research effort to combine disparate formal methods of expert elicitation into a streamlined method. Fourteen reliability analysts were interviewed to identify current practices in expert elicitation.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	2015 International Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, HFES 2015
Publisher	Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Inc.
Pages	1447-1451
Number of pages	5
ISBN (Electronic)	9780945289470
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1177/1541931215591314
State	Published - 2015
Event	59th International Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, HFES 2015 - Los Angeles, United States Duration: Oct 26 2015 → Oct 30 2015

Publication series

Name	Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society
Volume	2015-January
ISSN (Print)	1071-1813

Conference

Conference	59th International Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, HFES 2015
Country/Territory	United States
City	Los Angeles
Period	10/26/15 → 10/30/15

Access to Document

10.1177/1541931215591314

Cite this

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title = "A survey of expert elicitation practices for probabilistic risk assessment",

abstract = "Risk and reliability analyses of human errors or hardware failures sometimes need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate human performance or hardware operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. Formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, but the methods are often time-consuming and costly to implement. This paper reports the first phase of a research effort to combine disparate formal methods of expert elicitation into a streamlined method. Fourteen reliability analysts were interviewed to identify current practices in expert elicitation.",

author = "Boring, {Ronald Laurids}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: Copyright 2015 Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.; 59th International Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, HFES 2015 ; Conference date: 26-10-2015 Through 30-10-2015",

year = "2015",

doi = "10.1177/1541931215591314",

language = "English",

series = "Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society",

publisher = "Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Inc.",

pages = "1447--1451",

booktitle = "2015 International Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, HFES 2015",

}

Boring, RL 2015, A survey of expert elicitation practices for probabilistic risk assessment. in 2015 International Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, HFES 2015. Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, vol. 2015-January, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Inc., pp. 1447-1451, 59th International Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, HFES 2015, Los Angeles, United States, 10/26/15. https://doi.org/10.1177/1541931215591314

A survey of expert elicitation practices for probabilistic risk assessment. / Boring, Ronald Laurids.
2015 International Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, HFES 2015. Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Inc., 2015. p. 1447-1451 (Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society; Vol. 2015-January).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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A survey of expert elicitation practices for probabilistic risk assessment

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